As the Russia-Ukraine war recently surpassed the four-year mark with no end in sight, the newest recruits in Eastern Europe may be coming from dozens of colleges and universities.
At least 70 educational institutions across 24 Russian regions, including the Russian-annexed territory of Crimea, are recruiting students for the war that began on Feb. 24, 2022, according to Berlin-based independent media outlet Echo, which posted on Telegram. Russian forces have had an estimated 800-1,000 casualties daily for most of the war, according to Ukrainian military statistics. Russia has refuted the numbers.
These recent student recruitment efforts to sign contracts with the Russia Ministry of Defense include a reported 57 universities and 13 colleges and technical schools in 24 regions, including annexed Crimea. The actual number of educational institutions recruiting is likely significantly higher, according to Echo.
Multiple foreign policy experts told Military.com that the reported recruitments signal a prolonged conflict that Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t afford to lose. As of now, they give the edge to Russia due to resources, population, and long-term strategy.
'Stalemate' Conflict
Arkady Moshes, program director of Russia, EU's Eastern Neighborhood and Eurasia research program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told Military.com that Russia’s new recruitment tactics shows “that the Kremlin is still playing for victory and is not inclined to compromising and changing its demands an inch.”
“It is demonstrating that it not only believes that it has a military option; it may well prefer the military victory to a diplomatic solution,” Moshes said. “Most probably, Moscow does not see the situation as a stalemate."
The escalation that took place this winter and has been focused on the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is evidence that Russian leadership believes in Russia’s superiority and is viewing Ukraine’s responses as acceptable.
Hilary Appel, director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College, told Military.com that the latest move is indication that Russia would rather continue fighting than swiftly pursue a peace settlement with Ukraine.
“It also shows that the Kremlin is continuing its policy of using economic incentives to convince Russian men to voluntarily sign up for military service rather than initiate a partial or mass mobilization approach that relies on involuntary conscription,” Appel said.
“These efforts also suggest that past approaches to provide enough men on the battlefield, like recruiting from prisons and poorer regions and relying on additional troops from North Korea, are inadequate to alter the stalemate on the ground," she added.
While Russian soldiers are reportedly dying in much higher numbers than Ukrainian soldiers, the casualties are massive for both sides, Appel added, acknowledging the context of suffering—saying that the Ukrainian people are suffering much more broadly than the Russians.
In Ukraine, it is not just soldiers who are dying.
"Civilians in Ukraine are trying to survive the winter without reliable heating and food, and they are endangered by Russia’s bombing campaign. Despite missile and drone attacks on Russian soil that have led to gasoline shortages and other limited inconveniences, the Russian citizenry do not fear for their safety each day," Appel added.
Students 'Threatened' and 'Coerced'
Quotas are reportedly being imposed on universities, such as at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and the Far Eastern Federal University, for leading college-aged students to the Russian military, according to Echo.
Such recruitment methodology was described as a "carrot and stick" approach in which students are promised large payments that in some cases are being supplemented by the student’s respective universities.
Language included in the military pitch, as part of the contract between an individual and the Russian Ministry of Defense, is reportedly advertised as recruitment for the "unmanned systems forces” and conveyed as an exciting career in a high-tech industry that will provide modern, in-demand skills.
Recruiters have described such military service as an academic leave, where students can "quietly continue" their studies post-war. It was alluded to that some are even being promised a "guaranteed discharge" upon expiration of their contract.
“At the same time, students are pressured to attend recruitment meetings, threatening punishment for failure to attend. Sometimes students, especially those with poor academic performance, are summoned personally to the administration, where they are coerced into signing the contract,” Echo reported.
The director of a college in Novosibirsk called students who did not express a desire to go to war “cowards,” per the report.
A New Military Fighting Style
Russia's reported evaluation of college-aged students with varied educational backgrounds may prove a successful long-term strategy.
“The push into universities also indicates that other resources for recruitment…prisoners, ethnic minorities from remote regions, and the poor are no longer enough to sustain that strategy,” Mikhail Alexseev, professor of political science at San Diego State University, told Military.com.
On the other hand, he added, recruiting at institutions of higher learning does not necessarily indicate that Russia's capacity to maintain the offensive momentum will significantly diminish anytime soon.
There hasn’t been a mass Russian mobilization since late 2022, with continued twice-per-year conscriptions typically numbering about 160,000 recruits, according to Alexseev.
He also alluded to reports of Russia being supported by foreign fighters, including thousands from Africa and around 11,000 from North Korea.
“Actually, another special draft remains politically feasible for the Kremlin given that public opinion generally supports Russia's war,” Alexseev said. “With Russia's population exceeding Ukraine's by around 100 million people, Putin has a long way to go before frontline personnel losses would start to decisively hamstring his war efforts. Until then, indeed, he can continue to discount the cost of even human losses.”
Ukrainian Sustainment Remains Questionable
Ukraine has, frankly, had a more difficult time sustaining its campaign, Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, told Military.com.
Much of Ukraine's military efforts tied to weapons and ammunition has been subsidized directly from foreign governments like the United States and NATO members.
Recruiting from colleges and universities may also reflect upon Russia’s wanting for a new group of soldiers from particular socioeconomic backgrounds who are able to successfully operate high-tech technology including drones as part of a more diverse military environment, he added.
“Ukraine’s relative paucity of soldiers is widely viewed as its most serious military weakness,” Bandow said. “The conflict does not appear to be a stalemate, a la World War I. Russia is advancing—slowly and painfully, at great cost, with occasional reverses.
“Nevertheless, there is no reason to expect that to change given the disparity in infantry numbers and ongoing damage to Ukrainian power generation and industrial production. The problem for Kyiv is that its lines are likely to crack before Russia’s economy weakens sufficiently to force political change.”
