Russia and Ukraine may see a greater incentive to prolong the three-year conflict instead of rushing into a settlement, according to an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that clashes with President Donald Trump’s pledges for a rapid end to the three-year conflict.
Although both sides have shown willingness to test partial ceasefires, “leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement,” according to the Director of National Intelligence’s latest unclassified assessment published Tuesday.
The intelligence assessment will be presented Tuesday at the Senate Intelligence Committee’s hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat report, where top intelligence officials including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe are due to testify. It comes as the Trump administration has been pressing both sides to stop the fighting.
The hearing is likely to be dominated by revelations this week that top Trump officials — including Ratcliffe and Gabbard — discussed highly classified information on a non-governmental messaging app with the top editor of The Atlantic inadvertently included.
Trump administration officials are aiming to reach a ceasefire as soon as April 20, Bloomberg reported previously, but that timeline has been seen by Ukrainian and European officials as overly ambitious given moves by President Vladimir Putin that appear to be aimed at prolonging the discussions.
For Putin, “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity,” according to the annual assessment.
Nonetheless, both Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy probably understand the risks of a prolonged war. A protracted conflict could drag down the Russian economy and risks “undesired escalation with the West,” while for Ukraine, Zelenskyy likely understands the future of western assistance is uncertain, the report found.
Moscow also retains the momentum on the battlefield as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages and “will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.”
The U.S. intelligence community also continues to see a risk that Putin may resort to nuclear weapons. “Russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons,” according to the assessment.
In the past, Trump has been angered when the intelligence chiefs offered an assessment at odds with his position. In 2019, during Trump’s previous term, they expressed less optimism than the president on topics including the persistence of Islamic State terrorism and threats of the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. Trump attacked them on Twitter, calling them “naive” and saying that “Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!”
___
©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
