United Launch Alliance’s years-long delays with its new Vulcan rocket have flipped the script for national security missions, making SpaceX the new reliable provider.
The shift to Elon Musk’s company at the detriment to ULA’s bottom line is on the pad again Friday with a SpaceX Falcon 9 set to launch the GPS III-7 mission from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station’s Space Launch Complex 40 during a window from 1:23-1:38 p.m., with a backup date on Saturday from 1:18-1:34 p.m. Space Launch Delta 45’s weather squadron forecasts only a 45% chance for good conditions Friday, which only improves to 50% on Saturday.
The mission to launch a GPS satellite is the second that was originally awarded to ULA but transferred to SpaceX under the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 contract. Originally assigned to ULA’s Vulcan, both a December 2024 launch and now this one were shifted to Falcon 9 as ULA faced an extended delay in certification of its replacement for both its Atlas V and Delta IV class of rockets.
While called the GPS III-7 mission, it’s actually flying the eighth of 10 satellites constructed by Lockheed Martin to add to the U.S.’s GPS capability in space. It’s also part of an accelerated mission timeline laid out by the Space Force for national security missions in which payloads get to space in under three months from the decision to go, compared to the normal turnaround that can take up to 24 months.
“It highlights another instance of the Space Force’s ability to complete high priority launches on a rapid timescale, which demonstrates the capability to respond to emergent constellation needs as rapidly as space vehicle readiness allows,” said Space Force Col. Jim Horne, senior materiel leader of launch execution with the Assured Access to Space program.
The latest GPS satellites are three times more accurate and eight times more resistant to jamming than the other 38 in space already, according to the Space Force.
The Department of Defense’s desire to launch more effective GPS hardware, less susceptible to interference, forced the switch to SpaceX in both missions.
The NSSL Phase 2 contract, which featured five years’ worth of task orders announced from 2020-2024, was originally announced to give ULA 60% of the assignments. All of those were supposed to fly on Vulcan, with its first launches to be completed by summer 2022.
But as Vulcan faced myriad delays, the final spate of task orders ended up putting 26 missions on ULA’s plate to SpaceX’s 22. Now another two of those missions have swapped from ULA to SpaceX, although the Space Force has said ULA will get back two future missions previously assigned to SpaceX.
To date, ULA has only managed to fly one of those 26 missions, and that wasn’t on a Vulcan. Instead ULA was forced to use one of its few remaining Atlas V rockets, which flew last summer.
ULA, which is a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed Martin that formed in 2006, had originally been targeting mid-2020 for Vulcan’s debut. But it faced hurdles from COVID, acquisition of engines from supplier Blue Origin, delays from customer payloads and even a fiery test stand incident that all contributed to a nearly four-year slide.
It flew for the first time in January 2024, but not again until that October, both as part of ULA’s efforts to get national security certification. An issue with a solid rocket booster motor detaching during launch on the second flight, though, delayed that certification until March 2025.
At this point, the first national security launch on Vulcan won’t be until at least July, according to Major Gen. Stephen G. Purdy, the acting assistant secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration.
Purdy, a former head of Space Launch Delta 45 based at Patrick Space Force Base, raised concerns about ULA’s delays during written testimony released earlier this month to the U.S. House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.
“In NSSL Phase 2, the ULA Vulcan program has performed unsatisfactorily this past year,” he wrote. “Major issues with the Vulcan have overshadowed its successful certification resulting in delays to the launch of four national security missions. Despite the retirement of highly successful Atlas and Delta launch vehicles, the transition to Vulcan has been slow and continues to impact the completion of Space Force mission objectives.”
Vulcan’s certification is at the point only partial, having only been signed off for five of the Space Force’s nine required orbital needs, Purdy said. He did said ULA has increased its “engineering resources and management focus to resolve design issues” while government personnel have been more involved with both technical and program management.
Purdy said ULA’s first national security launch on Vulcan will be USSF-106. The payload, Navigation Technology Satellite-3, is headed to geostationary orbit. Built by L3Harris, it’s funded by the Air Force Research Laboratory and a potential replacement technology for GPS. It was one of two task orders given to ULA in 2020 with a value of $337 million. The other, USSF-51, was the one that launched last summer on an Atlas V.
With ULA dealing with a backlog of the Phase 2 contract missions, the company’s piece of the next pie got smaller. Earlier this year, the Space Force announced SpaceX, not ULA, would get the majority of the Phase 3 contracts with a total of $13.7 billion to be doled out over the next five years. SpaceX would receive 28 of 54 planned missions, or 52%. Meanwhile, ULA’s take is only 19 missions, or 35%, while newcomer Blue Origin would get seven, or 13%.
Purdy confirmed ULA had already lost out on some Phase 3 contracts because of the Vulcan delays, and addressed what he deemed to be ULA’s marching orders along with other commercial providers that have fallen short on delivery to the government.
“For these programs, the prime contractors must re-establish baselines, establish a culture of accountability, and repair trust deficit to prove to (me) that they are adopting the acquisition principles necessary to deliver capabilities at speed, on cost and on schedule,” he said.
ULA meanwhile is dipping its toes back into launches, lining up only its second planned mission of the year, a commercial launch for customer Amazon using another of its remaining Atlas V rockets. Following the April launch of the first mission for Amazon’s Project Kuiper, an internet satellite constellation that aims to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink system, the second mission is targeting liftoff no earlier than June 13.
Meanwhile, SpaceX has already flown its Falcon 9 on 64 missions this year, including 43 from the Space Coast.
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