Cuba’s Blackouts Raise Fears of Collapse and Risks for the United States

Cuba is facing one of the most severe internal crises in decades, driven by a collapse of its electrical grid and worsening economic conditions. In an interview with Military.com, Stefano Ritondale, co-founder and Chief Intelligence Officer at Artorias, an AI-driven geopolitical risk and intelligence analysis firm, said the situation has moved beyond a routine infrastructure failure and into a broader national stability concern. 

Recent reporting confirms that Cuba has experienced repeated nationwide blackouts tied to fuel shortages and failing power plants, leaving much of the island without electricity for extended periods. These outages have disrupted hospitals, transportation, and basic services, compounding existing shortages of food and medicine 

Ritondale described the situation as approaching a worst-case scenario, where the state struggles to provide even basic services. The Cuban government itself has acknowledged the severity of the problem, publicly describing failures in the national grid. 

From Power Failures to Political Pressure

Despite the scale of the crisis, Ritondale drew a key distinction: Cuba is not yet experiencing a full government collapse. State institutions, including the military and internal security services, currently remain intact.

The danger lies in how long current conditions persist. Prolonged blackouts can erode public trust and increase the risk of unrest. Cuba has already seen how quickly that can happen. In July 2021, widespread protests broke out across the island following shortages of food, medicine and electricity, marking one of the largest demonstrations in decades.

Ritondale said early warning signs are already visible in the form of localized protests and isolated acts of civil disobedience. The key question now is whether those incidents remain contained or expand into a broader movement. 

He also pointed to a fundamental intelligence challenge: widespread blackouts make it harder to assess what is happening across the island. With limited connectivity, analysts must rely more heavily on fragmented reporting from diaspora networks and social media, which can complicate efforts to build a complete picture. 

Migration Could Become the First Major Spillover

One of the most immediate risks for the United States is renewed migration from Cuba. That concern is grounded in recent experience.

In 2022, large numbers of Cubans left the island amid economic hardship. Many did not attempt the traditional maritime route to Florida. Instead, they traveled through other countries and eventually reached the U.S.-Mexico border, contributing to a surge in encounters recorded by U.S. Customs and Border Protection .

Ritondale said a similar pattern could emerge again if conditions worsen, with migration routes shifting depending on opportunity and enforcement. That creates uncertainty for U.S. planners, who could face pressure on both the southern border and maritime approaches.

“If we see a mass migration,” he said, “it could strain either the southern border or the Coast Guard, depending on how people move.” 

Foreign Influence and Intelligence Concerns

Beyond migration, Ritondale warned that instability in Cuba could create openings for foreign powers, particularly China.

Public reporting supports the broader concern. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has identified multiple sites in Cuba that appear linked to Chinese intelligence collection, including facilities capable of signals monitoring close to the United States.

Ritondale said analysts should watch for signs that foreign involvement moves beyond diplomatic messaging and into operational activity. One potential indicator would be increased shipments framed as humanitarian aid but carrying dual-use capabilities.

That shift has not been observed publicly so far, but it remains a key risk to monitor, especially given Cuba’s proximity to the U.S. mainland. 

Criminal Networks Could Move Quickly

Another concern is the potential for criminal groups to exploit instability if the Cuban government weakens.

Ritondale pointed to Haiti as a recent example of how quickly organized crime can fill a governance vacuum. In that case, armed groups expanded their control as state authority eroded.

A similar pattern in Cuba could affect narcotics trafficking, human smuggling, and weapons movement across the Caribbean. It could also complicate any effort to stabilize the island, particularly if elements of the security services splinter or shift into illicit activity. 

Why the Florida Straits Matter

Instability in Cuba would not remain confined to the island. Ritondale emphasized the importance of nearby maritime routes, particularly the Florida Straits and the broader Gulf region.

Those waters serve as a critical link for international shipping and energy transport. Gulf Coast ports, including those in Texas and Louisiana, play a central role in moving oil and other commodities. Disruptions in the region could affect both trade and energy flows.

He also noted that criminal activity at sea, including piracy targeting oil tankers, has occurred in parts of the Gulf. A breakdown in Cuban governance could increase those risks.

A Humanitarian Crisis Already Taking Shape

The humanitarian impact of Cuba’s energy crisis is already severe. Hospitals have struggled to operate during outages, and shortages of medicine and basic supplies have intensified.

The United Nations has warned that Cuba’s health system is under growing strain and that the broader humanitarian situation is worsening as the energy crisis continues.

Ritondale said a full collapse without a managed transition could create a far larger emergency, potentially requiring international intervention. Such a response would be complex, especially if security conditions deteriorate at the same time.

Why Washington Wants a Managed Outcome

Despite the risks, Ritondale said the United States has little interest in allowing a chaotic collapse of the Cuban government. Instead, he expects policymakers to push for a managed transition that preserves enough of the existing state structure to maintain order. 

A full-scale effort to dismantle Cuba’s governing system, he warned, could create more problems than it solves. Removing all elements of the current government at once would leave a vacuum with no clear authority to run the country, increasing the likelihood of instability, criminal activity and humanitarian breakdown. 

“If there’s a complete collapse,” he said, “you’re dealing with multiple pressure points all at once,” including migration, security threats and humanitarian needs. 

For now, the situation remains fluid. Cuba’s government still holds power, but conditions continue to deteriorate. Whether the crisis stabilizes or escalates will depend not only on how long the island can endure sustained energy failure, but also on whether any political transition can be managed without triggering the kind of collapse that U.S. officials appear keen to avoid.